Global Agricultural Productivity Growth Stalls, Threatening Food Security and Sustainability

Global Agricultural Productivity Growth Stalls, Threatening Food Security and Sustainability

A recent report from Virginia Tech’s College of Agriculture and Life Sciences (CALS) reveals a critical slowdown in global agricultural productivity growth, placing future food supplies, farmer livelihoods, and environmental sustainability at risk. The 2025 Global Agricultural Productivity (GAP) Report warns that innovation in agriculture has fallen behind the rapidly increasing demands on farmers and food systems.

The Productivity Plateau and Its Causes

Agricultural productivity is measured by total factor productivity (TFP), which assesses how efficiently inputs like land, labor, and capital are converted into outputs such as crops and biofuels. The report highlights that global TFP growth has dropped to a mere 0.76% annually over the past decade—only a third of the 2% annual growth needed to sustainably feed a growing population by mid-century.

In the U.S., the situation is particularly alarming: between 2011 and 2020, agricultural productivity actually declined slightly at an average rate of 0.05% annually. Meanwhile, competitors like China are accelerating ahead with nearly 1.9% annual growth, driven by stronger investments in agricultural research and development (R&D).

Stagnation in productivity growth is tied to factors such as slowing global trade, decreased public research funding, and farmers’ slow adoption of breakthrough technologies like GPS-enabled yield monitors and variable-rate applications.

The GAP Growth Frontier Model: 

A Pathway Forward

To address these challenges, the report introduces a novel model called the Total Factor Productivity Growth Frontier, which maps the technological, management, and innovation barriers that must be overcome to reignite productivity growth. This model organizes existing and emerging agricultural tools into four major domains, providing a diagnostic framework for policymakers, investors, and researchers to identify bottlenecks and investment opportunities.

The report emphasizes the need for better data integration and actionable intelligence, launching initiatives like GAP IQ—a next-generation AI-driven data platform that consolidates fragmented agriculture data to inform real-time decision-making and policy modeling.

Critical Recommendations for U.S. and Global Agriculture

Virginia Tech’s report calls for urgent action centered on four key priorities:

1. Reignite Public R&D Investment
   A significant increase—approximately $2.2 billion—in public agricultural research funding is essential to spark new innovations and maintain long-term productivity growth.

2. Close the Adoption Gap
   Farmers must more rapidly adopt productivity-enhancing technologies through coordinated support in financing, infrastructure, and training—the agricultural knowledge and innovation system must be revitalized.

3. Modernize Regulatory Frameworks
   The current regulatory environment needs updating to keep up with scientific advances, accelerating the approval and deployment of cutting-edge biotechnology and crop-protection tools.

4. Foster Public-Private Collaboration
   Bridging the gap between research breakthroughs and widespread adoption requires stronger partnerships between government, industry, and agricultural stakeholders.

Impact on the Future of Food and Agriculture

The stagnation of agricultural productivity growth poses profound risks for global food security, affordability, and sustainability. If innovation continues at the current sluggish pace, farmers may struggle to maintain profitability, and the supply of critical products like staple crops, biofuels, and raw materials will be threatened. This could lead to higher food prices, increased environmental degradation, and greater vulnerability of farming communities.

The report’s emphasis on data intelligence and collaborative innovation signals a shift toward more integrated, technology-driven agriculture. Accelerating research investments and modernizing agricultural practices will be key to meeting the rising global demand for food in the face of climate change, resource constraints, and population growth.

Conclusion

The 2025 GAP Report by Virginia Tech paints a stark picture of the urgent need for renewed innovation in agriculture to avoid a productivity crisis. Its comprehensive analysis and actionable recommendations provide a roadmap to restore growth, improve farmer livelihoods, and safeguard global food systems for future generations. Without decisive leadership and investment, the world risks falling behind in the race to sustainably feed billions more by mid-century.