How Bangladesh’s Political Shift Reshapes Ties With India: An Explainer
Introduction
The political landscape in Bangladesh has undergone one of its most dramatic transformations in decades. A long-dominant political force that had shaped Dhaka’s relations with New Delhi for years — the leadership of Sheikh Hasina and her Awami League party — has been entirely displaced, ushering in a government led by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) under Tarique Rahman. This change has profound implications for India-Bangladesh relations, including renewed calls for the extradition of Sheikh Hasina from India, a fractious diplomatic demand that could test bilateral cooperation.
To understand the significance of these developments, this article unpacks the historical context of India-Bangladesh relations; why the current issue exists; how it developed; the stakes for people and institutions in both countries; and what might happen next.
A Historical Foundation: India–Bangladesh Relations
The Legacy of 1971 and Early Cooperation
Bangladesh was born out of a bitter and bloody conflict in 1971, when East Pakistan fought for independence from Pakistan with crucial support from India. Millions of refugees poured over into India’s eastern states, and New Delhi’s military intervention helped secure Bangladesh’s sovereignty. In March 1972, the two countries signed the Indo-Bangla Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Peace, aiming to cement that bond in a post-war era and commit to lasting cooperation.
Despite its idealistic language, the treaty eventually lapsed amid changing political realities and disagreements over issues like water sharing, border incidents, and perceived interference in internal affairs.
Political Change and Shifting Tides
In the decades that followed, Bangladesh’s domestic politics oscillated between two major parties: the Awami League and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party. When the BNP governed from 2001 to 2006 in coalition with Jamaat-e-Islami, relations with India grew tense as Dhaka was seen as less cooperative on regional security issues. Counter-terror cooperation frayed and concerns mounted over insurgent groups operating along the porous border.
By contrast, under Sheikh Hasina’s long tenure as prime minister (2009–2024), ties warmed significantly. A 2015 Land Boundary Agreement resolved a decades-old territorial dispute; connectivity projects and economic collaboration flourished; and Delhi and Dhaka maintained regular diplomatic engagement.
What Happened in 2024–2026
Uprising and Transition
In mid-2024, Bangladesh experienced widespread student-led protests that engulfed its political establishment. The movement culminated in the ouster of Sheikh Hasina as prime minister, her exile to India, and the establishment of an interim government under Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus.
Hasina has faced legal challenges in Bangladesh since her removal, including trials in absentia for alleged “crimes against humanity” connected to the 2024 unrest, and international attention to the fairness of those proceedings.
The 2026 Election
On February 12, 2026, Bangladesh held its first general election since the upheaval of 2024. The result was a landmark victory for the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), which won a commanding majority of seats in the Jatiya Sangsad (parliament). The Islamist Jamaat-e-Islami alliance also recorded significant gains, emerging as the principal opposition bloc.
The election is being seen as Bangladesh’s most competitive in decades, with relatively high voter turnout and international recognition of its procedural legitimacy, despite ongoing debates about institutional barriers and the ban on Sheikh Hasina’s party (the Awami League) from contesting.
What the Extradition Issue Is
The most immediate and sensitive policy flashpoint in India-Bangladesh relations is Bangladesh’s demand that India extradite former prime minister Sheikh Hasina — currently in New Delhi — to face trial in Dhaka. The BNP leadership argues that Hasina must answer to the charges brought against her by Bangladeshi courts following the political transition.
India and Bangladesh do maintain an extradition treaty signed in 2013 during Hasina’s own government, meaning there is a legal framework that could be invoked — though it has rarely been tested in politically charged cases.
Why the Extradition Demand Exists
To some in Bangladesh, Hasina embodies an era of concentrated political power, alleged abuses of state institutions, and violations of democratic norms. Her trials and sentences in absentia have been supported by the interim government and political factions now in authority, who view them as necessary accountability.
For the BNP, pursuing Hasina’s return represents both justice and political closure, asserting the authority of the newly elected government. But for India, the request is diplomatically fraught. Extraditing a former head of government — especially one who was a close strategic partner — could have long-term costs for bilateral trust and India’s regional reputation.
India’s Strategic Calculus
Diplomatic Outreach Amid Uncertainty
Despite the tension, India’s leadership has acted quickly to acknowledge the outcome of the election. Prime Minister Narendra Modi was among the first world leaders to call Tarique Rahman following his victory, offering congratulations and expressing India’s desire for continuous cooperation.
New Delhi’s official stance highlights a preference for engaging constructively with Dhaka’s new leadership, even as it recalibrates its policy priorities to match shifting realities in Bangladesh.
Security and Economic Stakes
India’s concerns in Bangladesh are broad:
- Security cooperation: The stability of India’s northeastern states depends on effective border management and counter-terror collaboration. Any political shift that affects Dhaka’s stance on militancy could reverberate across the frontier.
- Migration and minority issues: Past tensions around migration and treatment of religious minorities have occasionally strained ties, and recent political rhetoric could exacerbate those sensitive topics.
- Economic partnership: Bangladesh has been one of India’s largest trading partners in South Asia, with deep interconnections in textiles, infrastructure projects, energy, and river transport. Maintaining these links is in both nations’ interests.
India also closely watches the growing presence of China in Bangladesh — Beijing’s infrastructure and investment footprint has expanded significantly amidst Dhaka’s political transition, presenting a geopolitical challenge to New Delhi’s influence.
Who Is Affected — And How
People and Communities
The political shift and changing foreign relations affect ordinary citizens in both countries:
- Bangladeshis: The new government’s policies will directly influence economic stability, civil liberties, social harmony (especially for minority groups), and international travel or employment opportunities.
- Indians: Particularly in border states like West Bengal, Assam, and Tripura, developments in Dhaka shape cross-border trade, migration patterns, and security conditions.
Businesses and Industries
Cross-border commerce, joint infrastructure projects (like rail and road connectivity), and regional supply chains have thrived in periods of stable cooperation. Political uncertainties could slow investment, disrupt trade flow agreements, or lead to renegotiations of economic frameworks.
A Comparative View: Past and Present
| Aspect | Under Sheikh Hasina | Under New BNP Government |
|---|---|---|
| India-Bangladesh relations | Warm and cooperative | Potentially transactional, uncertain |
| Security cooperation | Strong, focused on counter-terror | To be re-negotiated; potential skepticism |
| Extradition positioning | Not relevant | Central diplomatic issue |
| China’s influence | Growing slowly | Increasingly prominent |
| Minority rights scrutiny | Frequent criticism | A key concern in India’s diplomatic watch |
Table: Changing dynamics between India and Bangladesh leadership eras (compiled from multiple sources)
What Happens Next: Future Outlook
Diplomatic Pathways
Moving forward, there are several possible trajectories:
- Negotiated outcome on extradition: India could agree to a judicial process that respects legal safeguards while addressing Bangladesh’s demands, defusing a major point of friction.
- Maintained engagement with caution: New Delhi may choose to focus on common ground — trade, connectivity, and development — while sidestepping the more contentious legal dispute.
- Regional realignment: If Bangladesh deepens ties with China and other external partners, India might counter with incentives and renewed economic diplomacy to safeguard its interests.
Risks and Challenges
- Political rhetoric: Hardline statements from domestic actors on both sides could inflame nationalism, complicating diplomatic negotiations.
- Societal impact: Any deterioration in relations might affect visa regimes, migrant workers, or cross-border communities that depend on sustained engagement.
- Security threats: Unresolved concerns over militancy or border instability could resurface if cooperative frameworks are weakened.
Conclusion
Bangladesh’s political transformation — marked by the BNP’s decisive parliamentary win and the contentious demand for Sheikh Hasina’s extradition from India — marks a defining moment for South Asian geopolitics. It tests decades of post-liberation cooperation, challenges longstanding strategic assumptions, and presents a highly complex diplomatic landscape.
What happens next will depend on pragmatic choices by leaders in Dhaka and New Delhi, the resilience of bilateral institutions, and regional geopolitical currents. Both countries have strong incentives to maintain peace and prosperity, but navigating legal disputes and historical grievances will require careful, nuanced engagement.