Title: The Gaps and Unanswered Questions in the India–US Trade Deal
Introduction
On February 2–3, 2026, the United States and India announced a landmark trade agreement intended to ease long-running economic tensions and significantly deepen bilateral trade ties. Under this deal, US tariffs on Indian goods are slated to fall from roughly 50 percent to about 18 percent, and India is expected to lower tariffs on American products and substantially increase purchases from the U.S. (including energy and technology) — potentially up to roughly $500 billion.
The markets reacted sharply: Indian equities rallied, the rupee strengthened, and exporter sentiment improved. But beneath the headlines lie multiple ambiguities, omissions, and unresolved questions that could shape the long-term success or failure of this deal.
This article explains the deal, explores what is missing, why that matters, how ordinary people may be affected, and what the future outlook could be.
A Snapshot: What Has Been Announced
Before exploring gaps, here’s a concise summary of what is known so far. The following table breaks down the major reported elements:
| Provision | Current Status | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| US tariff on Indian exports | Reduced from ~50 % to ~18 % | Announced by US President; one source notes specific punitive tariffs on Russian oil imports may be removed. |
| Indian market access for U.S. goods | Tariffs to move toward zero; purchases up to $500 billion | Exact timeline and product scope unclear. |
| Agriculture & dairy | Claimed protected by India | Government says sensitive sectors shielded. |
| Energy policy | India to halt Russian oil purchases | Reported in U.S. announcements; Russia denies being formally notified. |
| Detailed legal text | Not released publicly | Key element still missing. |
Why This Deal Is Significant
Historical Context
The U.S. is one of India’s largest trading partners and investors; bilateral trade in goods and services was estimated at over $100 billion in recent years. But relations had entered a challenging phase in 2025 when the U.S. imposed escalating tariffs — sometimes reaching 50 percent — on Indian goods as part of broader trade grievances.
These tensions threatened markets, investment flows, and exporter planning, especially in labour-intensive export sectors such as textiles, leather goods, and marine products.
What’s Missing — The Unanswered Questions
Even as leaders celebrate a deal in principle, major elements remain opaque or unresolved. These gaps matter not just to negotiators and investors, but to workers, farmers, businesses, and consumers on both sides.
Below are the key missing pieces:
1. Complete Agreement Text Still Unreleased
While leaders announced broad tariff rates and commercial commitments, the full legal text of the agreement has not been published.
- No official treaty text or schedule is available in public records.
- It’s uncertain which products will enjoy tariff cuts on both sides and when exactly cuts take effect.
Without this, traders and businesses must guess what the practical implications will be.
2. Agriculture Sector Details Are Ambiguous
The Indian government insists that sensitive sectors such as agriculture and dairy are protected.
But independent analysts note:
- India may still reduce tariffs on some U.S. agricultural goods, meaning increased competition for Indian farmers.
- Opposition groups allege this could harm livelihoods in rural areas.
Given that agriculture employs the majority of India’s workforce, clarity on exact tariff lines, quotas, and safeguards is critical.
3. Services and Talent Mobility Are Not Addressed
Modern trade deals often expand beyond tariffs on goods to include:
- Services trade
- Professional mobility and visas
- Mutual recognition of qualifications
In India–US talks, these aspects seem largely absent from public discussion so far. This omission risks limiting benefits for sectors like IT and higher education — where both countries are major players.
4. Enforcement, Timelines, and Remedies
A successful trade deal must answer:
- When do tariff cuts kick in?
- How are disputes between traders resolved?
- What happens if one side backtracks?
Right now, negotiators have not shared implementation schedules or dispute settlement mechanisms, creating uncertainty for businesses.
5. Geopolitical and Energy Commitments Lack Verification
A central reported component is India agreeing to curtail Russian oil purchases — a major shift in its foreign policy and energy sourcing.
But as of this writing:
- Russia indicates it hasn’t received any formal notice from India about ending oil deals.
This inconsistency raises questions about whether this element is part of a binding agreement or a political statement.
Causes of These Gaps
Several factors help explain why the deal has such missing elements:
A. Political Imperatives Over Legal Drafting
Both leaders may have prioritized public announcements and political messaging over completing legal instruments.
This strategy can be effective for market sentiment, but it leaves traders and regulators without clear rules.
B. Deep Domestic Sensitivities
India’s protection of agriculture and dairy reflects longstanding political concerns about rural livelihoods. India has been cautious in trade talks with the EU and others on similar issues.
Similarly, U.S. agricultural producers seek expanded access to Indian markets — a politically sensitive demand.
These competing pressures can make detailed text difficult to finalize.
C. Broader Foreign Policy Calculus
The U.S. may be using this agreement as leverage for geopolitical goals — including influence over energy policy and positioning in global supply chains.
That complicates negotiations, as economic commitments are tied to strategic interests.
Impact on People and Businesses
For Indian Exporters and Workers
- Tariff reductions could improve competitiveness in textiles, leather, chemicals, and other sectors — potentially boosting export volumes.
- However, uncertain timelines and missing details make hiring, investment, and capacity planning difficult.
For Indian Farmers and Rural Economy
- If agricultural markets open more than government statements suggest, local producers may face price competition that could reduce incomes.
- This in turn fuels political protests and opposition criticism.
For U.S. Producers and Consumers
- U.S. farmers may gain market access in India, increasing demand for crops and livestock.
- American importers may benefit from lower costs on Indian manufactured goods.
Broader Economic Risks
Uncertainty in the deal may reduce the short-term investment confidence of some companies while benefiting others who can capitalize on early tariff cuts.
Future Outlook — What Happens Next?
Completion and Ratification
A formal signed agreement and legal text are expected in the coming months.
Once finalized, it must be:
- Ratified by both governments (following their legislative or executive processes)
- Supported by implementing regulations
Until that happens, the deal remains a politically announced framework, not a legally effective treaty.
Potential Flashpoints to Watch
| Issue | Why It Matters |
|---|---|
| Agriculture market access | Affects millions of small-scale farmers in India |
| Services and talent provisions | Could unlock major growth in tech and education sectors |
| Dispute settlement rules | Determines how quickly trade frictions get resolved |
| Energy policy commitments | Impacts India’s strategic autonomy and relationships |
Conclusion
The India–US trade deal represents a major turning point in one of the world’s most important bilateral economic relationships. But while headlines have focused on tariff cuts and ambitious purchase targets, critical elements remain unresolved or undisclosed.
The missing details — especially around legal language, sectoral coverage, implementation timelines, and enforcement — mean that businesses, workers, and policymakers must navigate a period of uncertainty.
Only once the full agreement text is publicly available and formally ratified will the true benefits and risks become clear.