El Niño Effect: How a 15% Monsoon Deficit Could Threaten India’s Pulses, Oilseeds and Food Prices
India’s 2026 monsoon season is showing signs of becoming a serious challenge for agriculture. Cumulative rainfall has fallen about 15% below the normal level so far, while around 45% of the country’s districts have recorded deficient rainfall. The shortage is particularly worrying because large parts of India’s agricultural economy depend on seasonal rainfall rather than irrigation.
The immediate concern is the condition of kharif crops, especially pulses such as tur and urad and the important oilseed soybean. If moisture stress continues, farmers could face lower yields at a time when elevated temperatures are already putting additional pressure on crops.
The consequences could extend well beyond farms. Lower production can affect food supplies, agricultural incomes, commodity prices and ultimately household food budgets.
Why India’s Monsoon Matters So Much
India’s agricultural calendar is closely linked to the southwest monsoon. Farmers sow a large variety of crops during the kharif season, with rainfall providing a significant share of the water needed for cultivation.
This makes an uneven monsoon particularly important. A national rainfall figure does not tell the entire story because agricultural damage depends heavily on where and when rain falls.
The current situation is concerning because nearly half of India’s districts have reported deficient rainfall. Some important agricultural regions are experiencing considerably larger moisture shortages than the national average.
For rain-dependent farmers, a prolonged dry spell during critical crop-development stages can reduce plant growth, flowering and ultimately yields.
Pulses and Soybean Among the Crops at Risk
Tur and Urad Face Moisture Stress
Tur, commonly known as pigeon pea, and urad, or black gram, are among the pulses facing potential production pressure.
Pulses are particularly important to Indian consumers because they provide an affordable source of protein and are a regular part of household diets.
Agricultural experts cited in the report estimate that yields of tur, urad and soybean could potentially decline by around 10% to 20% if current moisture stress continues. Some important pulse- and oilseed-growing districts are experiencing rainfall levels substantially below their long-term averages.
However, these estimates should be viewed as potential outcomes rather than final production figures. The eventual impact will depend on rainfall during the remaining crop cycle, soil moisture, irrigation availability and the severity of heat stress.
Soybean Is Another Major Concern
Soybean is one of India's key kharif oilseed crops. It is important for edible oil production as well as livestock feed and several industrial applications.
A significant decline in soybean output could therefore have consequences beyond farmers. Lower domestic availability may influence oilseed markets and increase dependence on other sources of supply.
The combination of deficient rainfall and unusually high temperatures is making conditions more difficult for standing crops.
El Niño Adds to the Agricultural Challenge
The current rainfall shortage has been linked to the influence of El Niño, a climate phenomenon associated with changes in ocean temperatures in the Pacific and shifts in global atmospheric circulation.
El Niño does not automatically mean that every part of India will experience drought. Its effects can vary significantly by region and season. But when below-normal rainfall coincides with high temperatures and depleted soil moisture, agricultural risks can rise sharply.
This year's situation illustrates why farmers and policymakers have to consider several weather indicators together rather than looking at rainfall alone.
High Temperatures Are Making the Situation Worse
Rainfall is only one side of the agricultural equation.
The country also experienced exceptionally high temperatures during August. According to India Meteorological Department data cited in the report, August's national minimum temperature was the highest recorded since 1902, while the mean temperature ranked second-highest and maximum temperature fourth-highest in the same historical series.
High temperatures can increase evaporation and accelerate the loss of moisture from soil and plants.
This creates a difficult combination:
- Less rainfall reduces available water.
- Higher temperatures increase water demand.
- Dry soil makes crops more vulnerable to heat.
- Rainfed farms have fewer alternatives when rainfall fails.
- Existing water reserves become more valuable.
The result can be a compounding form of stress rather than a simple rainfall shortage.
Regional Impact Is Becoming More Visible
The agricultural impact is not evenly distributed across India.
Karnataka has declared drought conditions in more than 100 talukas, with additional areas potentially being added. Crop stress has also been reported in parts of Maharashtra, Telangana and Madhya Pradesh.
These regions are significant agricultural areas, making the situation important for both farmers and commodity markets.
In northern India, water management is becoming another concern. The Bhakra Beas Management Board has asked Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan to reduce water consumption because reservoir levels are lower than usual for this stage of the rainy season. Farmers have also been advised to consider crops that require less water during the upcoming rabi season.
Why the Rabi Season Is Also Important
The consequences of a weak monsoon may continue even after the kharif season ends.
Water stored in reservoirs and groundwater resources plays an important role in supporting the rabi season, when crops such as wheat, mustard, chickpea and other winter crops are cultivated.
If reservoirs receive insufficient replenishment, governments and farmers may have to make difficult decisions about water allocation.
That is why some states are already taking measures to conserve water. The objective is not simply to protect crops currently standing in fields but also to preserve resources for the next agricultural season.
What Could Happen to Food Prices?
One of the biggest concerns is food inflation.
If production of pulses or oilseeds declines significantly, supplies could tighten. When supply becomes constrained while demand remains relatively stable, prices can come under upward pressure.
Pulses deserve particular attention because they are an important component of India's food basket. A sustained production shortfall could make domestic supplies tighter and potentially increase the need for imports.
Oilseeds are similarly important because India has a large edible-oil consumption requirement. A weaker soybean crop could therefore affect the broader edible-oil market.
However, the final impact on retail prices will depend on several factors, including government policy, imports, inventories, global commodity prices and how the monsoon performs during the remaining period.
Could Government Intervention Limit the Damage?
India has several tools available when agricultural production comes under pressure.
Authorities can potentially use measures involving imports, food stocks, market interventions and water management. States can also provide agricultural advisories to farmers and encourage cultivation strategies suited to available water resources.
The effectiveness of these measures will depend on how severe the crop losses become.
The government and agricultural agencies will therefore be watching rainfall patterns, reservoir levels, crop conditions and market prices closely in the coming weeks.
What Happens If Rain Returns?
There is still an important variable that could change the outlook: additional rainfall.
IMD scientists expect a weather system to bring rain to parts of central and southern India, although they have indicated that the expected rainfall may not be sufficient to completely eliminate the accumulated deficit.
This distinction matters.
Rain arriving at the right time can improve soil moisture and help crops that have not suffered irreversible damage. But late rainfall cannot necessarily compensate for every earlier period of water stress.
The eventual harvest will therefore depend not simply on how much rain India receives, but also on where it falls and when it arrives.
What This Means for Farmers and Consumers
For farmers, the immediate priority is protecting existing crops wherever possible and conserving available water.
For consumers, the issue is more indirect. If crop production falls, food prices could eventually reflect tighter supplies.
For policymakers, the challenge is broader: they must manage current agricultural losses while ensuring sufficient water remains available for the next cropping cycle.
The situation also highlights a larger issue facing Indian agriculture—its vulnerability to increasingly unpredictable weather patterns.
FAQs
1. What is India's current monsoon rainfall deficit?
The cumulative monsoon rainfall deficit is around 15%, according to the information reported by the Economic Times. About 45% of India's districts have recorded deficient rainfall.
2. Which crops are most at risk?
Tur, urad and soybean are among the crops specifically identified as being vulnerable to the current moisture deficit. Other standing kharif crops may also face losses if dry conditions continue.
3. Why is El Niño important?
El Niño can influence atmospheric and rainfall patterns, potentially contributing to unfavorable monsoon conditions. Its effects vary, but it can increase agricultural risks when combined with heat and moisture shortages.
4. Could this increase food inflation?
Yes, a significant reduction in domestic production could tighten supplies and put upward pressure on food prices, particularly for commodities such as pulses and oilseeds. The actual price impact will depend on production, imports, inventories and government measures.
5. Will more rain solve the problem?
Additional rainfall could improve conditions in some areas, but its effectiveness will depend on timing and location. Rainfall later in the season may help some crops but may not fully reverse damage already caused by prolonged moisture and heat stress.
6. Why are reservoir levels important?
Reservoirs provide water for agriculture and other uses. Lower-than-normal storage can make it harder to support both late kharif crops and the upcoming rabi season, increasing the need for careful water management.
Conclusion
India's 15% monsoon rainfall deficit is more than a weather statistic. It is becoming an agricultural and economic concern because rainfall shortages are occurring alongside unusually high temperatures and significant regional moisture stress.
Tur, urad and soybean are among the crops facing potential yield reductions, while water availability for the rabi season is emerging as another important concern.
The outlook is not yet fixed. Further rainfall could provide relief to some agricultural regions, but experts indicate that incoming rain may not completely erase the existing deficit.
For farmers, consumers and policymakers alike, the coming weeks will therefore be crucial. The performance of the remaining monsoon could determine not only the size of India's kharif harvest but also the availability of water for the winter crop and the direction of food prices in the months ahead.